Dean Rohrer

Un reajuste en el Cáucaso

EREVÁN – ¿Acaso las actuales dificultades entre el primer ministro de Turquía, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, y las poderosas fuerzas armadas complicarán y retrasarán las iniciativas más audaces que ha tomado el país en años – las medidas para abordar las tensiones que ha habido desde hace décadas con los armenios y los kurdos?

Es esencial reestructurar el papel de las fuerzas armadas de Turquía, pero si ese país no puede continuar las aperturas con los armenios y los kurdos, empeorarán sin duda la situación interna del país, sus relaciones con esos dos pueblos y las tensiones en el Cáucaso. Entre los distintos puntos de conflicto de la región, incluyendo el de Osetia del Sur y Abjazia entre Georgia y Rusia, la tensión entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán por Nagorno-Karabaj representa uno de los mayores desafíos.

En lo que se refiere a Georgia y Rusia, el tamaño, peso y poder desproporcionados de uno de los bandos es suficiente para impedir que se vuelva a utilizar la violencia. Además, no hay enredos por alianzas que compliquen la cuestión. Georgia no es miembro de la OTAN y es claro que Estados Unidos no emprenderá una guerra contra Rusia a causa de Georgia.

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