Dean Rohrer

Redéfinir le Caucase

EREVAN – Les tensions actuelles en Turquie entre le Premier ministre Recep Tayyip Erdogan et la puissante armée turque vont-elles compliquer et retarder l’une des initiatives les plus hardies prises par ce pays depuis des années, soit les démarches entreprises pour normaliser les relations avec les Arméniens et les Kurdes ?

Bien que la révision du rôle de l’armée turque soit essentielle, si la Turquie ne parvient pas à donner suite aux ouvertures en direction des  Arméniens et des Kurdes, ni à résoudre ses problèmes internes, ses relations avec ces deux peuples et les tensions dans le Caucase iront sans doute en s’aggravant. Parmi les nombreux points chauds de la région – dont le contentieux entre la Géorgie et la Russie à propos de  l’Ossétie du Sud et de l’Abkhazie – le conflit entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan à propos du Haut-Karabakh est l’un des plus périlleux.

Dans le cas de la Géorgie et de la Russie, la taille, le poids et la puissance de la fédération russe sont suffisants pour empêcher tout retour des hostilités. Il n’existe de plus aucune alliance contraignante pour compliquer la situation. La Géorgie n’est pas membre de l’Otan, et il est clair que les Etats-Unis ne se risqueront pas à un conflit avec la Russie pour la Géorgie.

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