Un plan de recuperación para Argentina

El presidente de Argentina, Eduardo Duhalde, ha estado solicitando con vehemencia apoyo internacional para reconstruir su país. Argentina necesita y merece esa ayuda, y tiene desde hace mucho tiempo los cimientos necesarios, en términos de capacidades (una población alfabetizada y bien educada) y de instituciones (una democracia federal constitucional), para el éxito económico. Sin embargo, el presidente Duhalde tadavía no ha especificado qué es lo que se debe de hacer para aprovechar las dotes positivas de Argentina.

Por lo menos reconoce que Argentina es la única responsable de las malas decisiones de política que condujeron al desorden actual. Nadie obligó al país a adoptar el consejo monetario que diseñó Domingo Cavallo, el exministro de economía, y que fijó el tipo de cambio del peso al del dólar a una tasa de uno a uno (no obstante, es claro que el FMI no debió de haber contribuído a financiar las operaciones del consejo monetario sin exigir ajustes fiscales cuando el país liberalizó su comercio exterior).

Como resultado de la paridad con el dólar, las tasas de interés de Argentina estaban determinadas en gran medida en los EU. Sin el acceso a herramientas económicas básicas como el tipo de cambio y las políticas monetarias, Argentina no pudo superar los profundos shocks externos de la segunda mitad de los noventa, cuando los precios de las exportaciones cayeron, el dólar se revaluó y Brasil, el principal socio comercial del país, devaluó su moneda. La única alternativa era una severa austeridad fiscal, para la que el gobierno nunca tuvo la suficiente voluntad política.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/T7pw8Id/es;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.