Ein Plan zur Rettung Argentiniens

Der argentinische Präsident Eduardo Duhalde hat eindringlich an die Weltöffentlichkeit appelliert, sein Land beim Wiederaufbau zu unterstützen. Argentinien braucht und verdient diese Hilfe. Die Grundlagen für den wirtschaftlichen Erfolg - gut ausgebildete Menschen und Institutionen, die auf den Prinzipien der föderalistischen Verfassungsdemokratie beruhen - sind schon seit langem vorhanden. Doch Duhalde hat es bisher verabsäumt genau zu definieren was zu tun ist, um aus diesen positiven Grundlagen auch einen Nutzen zu ziehen.

Zumindest hat er verstanden, dass Argentinien ganz allein für die schlechte Politik verantwortlich ist, die geradewegs in das heutige Schlamassel führte. Kein Mensch zwang Argentinien das vom ehemaligen Wirtschaftsminister Domingo Cavallo konzipierte Currency Board-System in die Praxis umzusetzen, wodurch der Peso im Verhältnis 1:1 an den Dollar gekoppelt wurde. (Aber auch der IWF hätte klarerweise darauf verzichten sollen die Aktionen des Currency Boards finanziell zu unterstützen ohne gleichzeitig Anpassungen im Staatshaushalt zu fordern, als das Land seinen Außenhandel liberalisierte.)

Durch diese Koppelung der argentinischen Währung an den Dollar wurden die argentinischen Zinssätze weitestgehend in den USA festgelegt. Ohne Zugang zu grundlegenden ökonomischen Instrumenten wie Wechselkurse und Geldpolitik konnte Argentinien aber die schweren externen Schocks in der zweiten Hälfte der neunziger Jahre des vorigen Jahrhunderts nicht verkraften. Die Exportpreise fielen, der Wert des Dollars stieg und beim wichtigsten Handelspartner Brasilien kam es zu einer Währungsabwertung. Die einzige Alternative wäre ein rigider Sparkurs gewesen, zu dem sich die Regierung aber nie durchringen konnte.

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