Путинский бум?

МОСКВА: У Владимира Путина есть причина праздновать не только победу на выборах пост Президента России. После десятилетия ужасающих пертурбаций, экономика России наконец начинает «выздоравливать». Московская брокерская компания Брунсуик Варбург предсказала подъем российского ВНП на 5 % в этом году. Этот рост позволит Президенту Путину – если он окажется достаточно терпеливым и настойчивым – заняться долговременными реформами, необходимыми для превращения России в то мощное государство, о котором он мечтает.

До сегодняшнего дня, широкий консенсус предсказывал России 1-2% роста в этом году. Причина такого не слишком вдохновляющего прогноза проста: люди – экономисты и инвесторы – стали настолько пессимистичны по поводу России, что они уже просто не замечают позитивных факторов. Общее убеждение состоит в том, что российский промышленный рост происходит только в результате высоких цен на нефть и замещения импорта, сопровождаемого сильной девальвацией рубля.

На фоне прошлогоднего роста (3.2 %) и поразительного роста за последний квартал (8.8 %), это убеждение не имеет под собой разумной основы. Рост действительно увеличивается. Подобная динамика не может прекратиться без серьезной на то причины. Рост промышленности в прошлом году составлял 8,1%, и с тех пор подскочил до 14% в феврале этого года.

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