后核武时代的欧洲大西洋安全秩序

华盛顿——随着2011年的到来,欧洲大西洋地区已经成为战略对比研究的课题。过去20年来,从大西洋到乌拉尔山的地缘政治领域发生了最翻天覆地的变化。我们在有生之年亲眼见证了从冷战最黑暗的时期到一个崭新时代的令人欢欣鼓舞的过渡,冷战时期的欧洲面临着毁灭性常规及核战争的现实威胁,但现在类似这样的现实威胁已经解除。

但尽管事情在向好的方向转化,但美国和俄罗斯等两大地区强国仍然掌握着数以千计的核武器,占全世界核武器现有库存的超过90%。其中很多武器仍然设计用于或部署在欧洲大西洋区域。

削减并消除冷战核设施是过去那个时代遗留下来的最艰巨的任务。高度戒备的大规模战略核部队及部署在北约某些国家和俄罗斯的战术核武器造成了意外、私自或错误发射核武器的可能性,也有可能导致相关资产落入恐怖份子手中。因此安全警戒就成为重中之重。

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