后危机时代的风险世界

米兰——

如今,全球经济最令人瞩目的特征是各国在宏观风险上的相互关联性。后危机时代产生了一个增长速度各异的世界,主要发达国家正在低增长、高失业的泥淖中苦苦挣扎(德国是显著例外),而主要新兴市场经济体(巴西、中国、印度、印尼和俄罗斯)已经恢复到了危机前的增长水平。

这一特征也反映在公共财政领域。平均而言,新兴经济体的债务-GDP之比降低到了40%,而发达国家则在向100%前进。不管是欧洲还是美国,都没有出台可信的中期计划来稳定其财政状况。欧元-美元汇率的大波动反映了大西洋两岸风险孰高孰低还远未可知。

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