Problemas en la zona euro

LONDRES – Los responsables del diseño de políticas de Europa manejaron mal el problema de la deuda de Grecia. Inicialmente, los jefes de gobierno de la Unión Europea, y el Banco Central Europeo, rechazaron la idea de involucrar al Fondo Monetario Internacional, pero sin un plan alternativo. Es difícil no llegar a la conclusión de que en parte esto se debió a la renuencia del presidente francés, Nicolas Sarkozy, de ver a Dominique Strauss-Kahn, el Director Gerente del FMI, llegar directamente de Washington al rescate de la zona euro. Por supuesto, Strauss-Kahn será probablemente el rival socialista de Sarkozy en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Francia.

¿Acaso Grecia es el aviso de que la unión monetaria europea está a punto de disolverse, y que los otros tres famosos PIGS (Portugal, Italia y España) están alineados como fichas de dominó que caerán? Georges Soros teme que este sea el caso y da 50% de probabilidades a la zona euro de sobrevivir en su forma actual.

Ciertamente, el suceso puso de relieve las fallas de la gobernanza del euro –fallas que no sorprenden a aquéllos que participaron en la creación de la moneda común. Helmut Kohl, uno de los padres principales del euro, señaló en 1991 que “la idea de mantener una unión económica y monetaria duradera sin una unión política es una falacia.” Margaret Thatcher, desde el campo opuesto, dijo en sus memorias. “Pienso que la moneda única europea está destinada al fracaso económico, político y ciertamente social, aunque el momento, el contexto y las consecuencias todavía son poco claras.” Ahora puede haber un mercado para una traducción al griego de su libro.

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