Cestička přes evropské minové pole

LONDÝN – Zkraje tohoto týdne skupina bezmála 100 význačných Evropanů předala otevřený dopis lídrům všech 17 zemí eurozóny. Dopis mnoha slovy říkal, co teď už evropští lídři podle všeho pochopili: problém nemohou nadále „postrkovat před sebou“. Neméně důležité je, že dnes už chápou, že nestačí zajistit, aby vlády dokázaly financovat svůj dluh za rozumných úrokových sazeb, ale že se též musí vypořádat se slabinami evropské bankovní soustavy.

Problémy Evropy s bankovnictvím a suverénními dluhy se vzájemně posilují. Pokles cen státních dluhopisů odhalil podkapitalizaci bank, zatímco vyhlídky, že vlády budou muset financovat rekapitalizaci bank, zvyšují u státních dluhopisů rizikové prémie. Představa, že za situace, kdy se jejich akcie prodávají za zlomek účetní hodnoty, budou muset shánět dodatečný kapitál, působí na banky jako silná pobídka ke snižování vlastních bilancí tím, že odvolávají přiznané úvěrové limity a zmenšují si zápůjční portfolia.

Evropští lídři teď zvažují co dělat a jejich příští krok bude mít osudové následky, neboť trhy buď uklidní, anebo je přivede ke krajnostem. Všichni se shodnou, že Řecko potřebuje spořádanou restrukturalizaci, protože neřízený krach by mohl způsobit zhroucení eurozóny. Co se však týká bank, obávám se, že lídři eurozóny uvažují o některých nevhodných krocích.

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