欧洲雷区的安全小道

伦敦——本周早些时候,近100位欧洲名流向欧元区所有17个成员国领导人发出了一封集体公开信。信中直接了当地说出了欧洲领导人似乎已经心知肚明的道理:不能再继续使用“拖字诀”了。同样重要的是,他们还明白了,确保政府能够以合理利率发债是不够的,还必须提振欧洲疲软的银行体系。

事实上,欧洲银行问题和主权债务问题是相辅相成的。政府债券价格的下跌暴露出银行的资本不足问题,而政府不得不为银行资本重组提供资金的前景又推高了政府债券的风险溢价。如今,银行股价格还不到账面价值,欲在此时筹集新的资本会让银行产生用削减信贷额度、缩小贷款业务量的办法让资产负债表缩水的激励。

欧洲领导人正在思考应对措施,他们的下一步动作将决定欧洲的命运——要么让市场恢复平静,要么把市场推向新的极端。所有人都同意希腊需要有序重组,因为无序违约可能让欧元区分崩离析。但是,当事情牵涉到银行时,我怀疑欧元区领导人正在考虑实施一些不适当的手段。

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