Nuevo año, nuevos conflictos

DAVOS – En el mundo actual, identificar y gestionar zonas críticas no consiste simplemente en sacar un mapa, localizar los incendios más graves y encargar a los diplomáticos que apaguen las llamas. Para entender los conflictos y enfrentamientos de hoy, primero debemos conocer la manera en que las condiciones políticas mundiales los propician.

Es mucho más probable que surjan o persistan conflictos cuando quienes tienen los medios para impedirlos o ponerles fin no pueden o no quieren hacerlo. Lamentablemente, 2013 corroborará ese fenómeno.

En los Estados Unidos, exceptuando una crisis en política exterior que amenace directamente la seguridad nacional, el gobierno del Presidente Barack Obama se centrará la mayor parte de su tiempo, energía y capital político en la reducción de la deuda y otras prioridades nacionales. En Europa, continuará el esfuerzo para restablecer la confianza en la zona del euro. En China, aunque las demandas de crecimiento económico y creación de puestos de trabajo obligarán a los nuevos dirigentes del país a establecer nuevos vínculos en otras regiones, están demasiado preocupados por las complejidades de la reforma económica como para hacerse cargo de costos y riesgos innecesarios fuera de Asia. Por eso, este año, las llamas arderán durante más tiempo y serán más intensas.

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