Ein neues Jahr globaler Konflikte

DAVOS – In der Welt von heute geht es bei der Lokalisierung und Bewältigung von Konflikten nicht einfach nur mehr darum, einen Blick auf die Landkarte zu werfen, die Brandherde aufzuspüren und die Diplomaten mit den zur Brandbekämpfung nötigen Kompetenzen auszustatten. Um die wichtigsten Konflikte und Konfrontationen von heute zu verstehen, müssen wir vielmehr erkennen, auf welche maßgebliche Weise diese durch die globalen politischen Umstände ermöglicht werden.   

Konflikte entstehen viel eher oder dauern länger, wenn diejenigen, die befähigt wären, sie zu verhindern oder zu beenden, dies entweder nicht tun können oder nicht tun wollen. Im Jahr 2013 wird sich dieser Umstand leider erhärten.

Außer im Fall einer die nationale Sicherheit gefährdenden außenpolitischen Krise, wird die Administration von Präsident Barack Obama den größten Teil ihrer Zeit, Energie und ihres politischen Kapitals für den Schuldenabbau und andere innenpolitische Prioritäten aufwenden. In Europa wird man sich weiterhin den Bemühungen zur Wiederherstellung des Vertrauens in die Eurozone widmen. Und in China ist die neue Führung trotz der Notwendigkeit, Kontakte mit anderen Regionen zu knüpfen, um weiterhin für Wirtschaftswachstum und Arbeitsplätze zu sorgen, viel zu sehr mit den komplexen Schwierigkeiten der Wirtschaftsreform beschäftigt, um auch noch unnötige Kosten und Risiken außerhalb Asiens einzugehen. Aus diesen Gründen werden die Brandherde dieser Welt heuer länger und intensiver lodern. 

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