Une nouvelle année de conflits globaux

DAVOS – Dans le monde d’aujourd’hui, il faut bien plus qu’une simple carte géographique pour identifier et gérer les foyers sensibles, repérer les incendies et doter les diplomates de moyens pour éteindre les flammes. Pour comprendre les principaux conflits et confrontations de notre époque, il nous faut clairement déterminer comment les conditions politiques globales les ont rendus possible.

La probabilité de voir des conflits surgir et durer est beaucoup plus grande lorsque ceux qui ont les moyens de les prévenir ou d’y mettre fin ne le peuvent ou ne le veulent pas. Cela sera malheureusement le cas en 2013. 

Aux Etats-Unis, à moins d’une crise de politique étrangère qui menacerait directement la sécurité nationale, l’administration du Président Barack Obama concentrera le plus clair de son temps, de son énergie et de son capital politique sur la réduction de la dette et les autres priorités intérieures. En Europe, les responsables politiques continueront de lutter pour restaurer la confiance dans la zone euro. Et en Chine, même si les exigences de la croissance économique et de la création d’emplois obligeront les nouveaux dirigeants du pays à développer de nouveaux liens dans la région, ils sont bien trop préoccupés par les complexités de la réforme économique pour assumer des coûts et des risques inutiles hors de l’Asie. C’est pourquoi les foyers s’embraseront plus longtemps et plus intensément cette année.

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