全球冲突之年

达沃斯—在当今世界,要想识别和管理热点,光是画一张地图,标明出火点然后派全副武装的外交官去灭火是不够的。要理解当今世界的主要冲突和对抗,我们必须认清导致它们产生的全球政治环境。

冲突最有可能产生或持续的情况是有办法阻止或终结它们的人无法或不愿这样做。不幸的是,这将是2013年的一大特征。

在美国,除非发生直接威胁国家安全的外交政策危机,否则总统奥巴马的政府将把大部分时间、能量和政治资本集中在减少债务和其他国内事务上。在欧洲,官员将继续为重塑欧元区信心而挣扎。而在中国,尽管对经济增长和就业创造的需求将迫使新领导人发展与其他地区的信联系,但他们不会因经济改革的复杂性过大分去太多精力而在亚洲之外造成不必要的损失和风险。这就是为何世界之火将在今年烧得更旺。

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