سنة جديدة من الصراع العالمي

دافوس- في عالمنا اليوم فإن تحديد وادارة النقاط الساخنة ليست ببساطة مسألة سحب خارطة وتحديد الاماكن الملتهبة وتمكين الدبلوماسيين من اطفاء اللهب فمن اجل فهم الصراعات والمواجهات الرئيسة ، يجب علينا ان نعترف بالوسائل المهمة لانتشارها نتيجة للظروف السياسية العالمية.

ان من المحتمل جدا ان تنشأ الصراعات او تستمر عندما تنعدم الارادة او الرغبة عند اولئك الذين لديهم الوسائل لمنعها او انهائها للقيام بذلك وللاسف هذا سيظهر جليا سنة 2013 .

وفي الولايات المتحدة الامريكية ما لم تكن هناك ازمة تهدد بشكل مباشر الامن الوطني فإن ادارة الرئيس باراك اوباما سوف تخصص معظم وقتها وطاقتها ورصيدها السياسي لتخفيض الدين وغير ذلك من الاولويات المحلية وفي اوروبا فإن المسؤولين سوف يستمرون في صراعهم لاستعادة الثقة في منطقة اليورو وفي الصين وبالرغم من ان متطلبات النمو الاقتصادي وخلق فرص العمل سوف تجبر قادة البلاد الجدد على تطوير علاقات جديد مع مناطق اخرى فان تعقيدات الاصلاح الاقتصادي تشغلهم عن تحمل نفقات ومخاطر غير ضرورية خارج اسيا ولهذا السبب فإن حرائق العالم سوف تستمر في الاشتعال وتصبح اكثر حرارة هذا العام .

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