Economics

فرصة ثانية للإصلاح الأوروبي

Dec 27, 2012 Hans-Werner Sinn

ميونيخ ــ لقد تمكن البنك المركزي الأوروبي من تهدئة الأسواق على وعده بشراء كميات غير محدودة من سندات حكومات منطقة اليورو، لأنه عمل بذلك على طمأنة حاملي السندات فعلياً بأن دافعي الضرائب والمتقاعدين في اقتصادات منطقة اليورو التي لا تزال سليمة سوف يتحملون عبء السداد إذا لزم الأمر. ورغم أن البنك المركزي الأوروبي ترك كيفية تنفيذ ذلك الأمر مفتوحا، فإن التزامه كان سبباً في إثارة شهية المستثمرين، وخفض فوارق أسعار الفائدة في منطقة اليورو، وإتاحة إمكانية خفض تمويل الاقتصادات التي ضربتها الأزمة من خلال مطبعة النقود (الائتمان المستهدف).

وتشكل فترة الراحة المؤقتة هذه الفرصة المثالية للمضي قدماً في الإصلاحات. فيتعين على رئيس الوزراء اليوناني أنطونيس ساماراس أن يقنع مواطنيه بجديته بشأن تنفيذ الإصلاحات. ويستحق رئيس الوزراء الأسباني ماريانو راجوي ووزير المالية البرتغالي فيكتور جاسبار المزيد من الدعم لخطتهما. ولا نملك إلا أن نأمل أن يشارك رئيس الوزراء الإيطالي المؤقت ماريو مونتي في الانتخابات العامة التالية. فكل هؤلاء الزعماء يفهمون ماذا يتعين عليهم أن يفعلوا.

أما فرنسا فهي تبدو على النقيض من ذلك وكأنها لم تلحظ الكتابة المدونة بوضوح على الجدار. فالرئيس فرانسوا هولاند يريد حل مشاكل بلاده بالاستعانة ببرامج النمو. ولكن عندما يتحدث الساسة عن "النمو" فإنهم يقصدون "الاقتراض". وهذا هو آخر ما تحتاج إليه فرنسا.

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Hans-Werner Sinn

Writing for PS since 2002
111 Commentaries

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Munich, is a former president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Green Paradox: A Supply-Side Approach to Global Warming (The MIT Press, 2012).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 10 Comments on this article

Carol Maczinsky Jan 31, 2013

The ECB was not authorised to guarantee that. We cannot accept anarchism from the top, robber central banking.
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Gerald Silverberg Jan 17, 2013

Bravo, Herr Sinn!

That the internal devaluation you advocate is self-defeating (and moreover, quite aside from the concomitant social unrest, is very hard to accomplish), has finally dawned even on the IMF. Since the real outlier in Eurozone unit cost evolution was always and almost exclusively Germany (France in fact was the one Eurozone country in macro equilibrium, with nominal wage growth equal to productivity growth and targeted inflation), did it ever occur to you that it would be much easier for everyone concerned for Germany to inflate the EZ back into relative competitiveness balance by raising its labor share and devaluing the Euro than to condemn everyone else to deflationary collapse (see my NY Times op-ed from 2011 (https://sites.google.com/site/savingtheeuro/).

Prescribing the German (and Chinese) race to the bottom of lowering labor share is a recipe for global macroeconomic unsustainability, even if it has been in Germany's economic interest until now. But it is hard to imagine that the author of "Die Basar-Ökonomie", which predicted the decline of the German export powerhouse in 2005, could put two and two together to understand that universal austerity and wage deflation is a recipe for disaster (and now is plunging even Germany into recession).
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Alexander Stingl Dec 31, 2012

The construction of the Euro and the EU was supposed to be built on more than just the economic pillar originally. It was the mentality of influential lobbyists and propagandists for a neoliberal rationale, which Hans-Werner Sinn stands for, that sounded the trumpet for the idea that the sole pillar that was needed was the economic one and that all else would follow naturally because their religion, their faith in the "invisible hands" and this God-like entity "the Market", would be enough to create a commonwealth for all. The warnings of those saying that you cannot stand on one leg for long was silenced by the noise of the trumpets, and on they marched into the crisis of today. Whom did this religion help? Those who continue to sell the neoliberal agenda in selling their trumpets (books, articles, interviews, economic studies). The only solution is to stop listening to pundits who continue to think in nationalistic economies and territorial solutions, and to create genuine long-term solutions for a united European society in a post-colonial world.
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Pingfan Hong Dec 31, 2012

From a domestic point of view, it seems unfair and miserable for those European countries mentioned in the article to have to reduce their price level ( thus wage level ) by 20 per cent in order for them to become competitive at the international level. However, from emerging economies point of view, it is perfectly fair: why should a worker in Europe earn 20% per cent more than a worker in Turkey if both of them do the same job? From the global point of view, it is a natural process of convergence among countries: no countries are entitled to stay advanced forever in terms of productivity and living standard.
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Shane Beck Dec 30, 2012

France suffers the common fate of countries like Italy, Spain and Greece than have shacked themselves to the German giant: they simply cannot compete with it in value added exports. They either have to opt out of the common currency to make their exports competitive or the have to delegate all their economic decision making, hence sovereignty, to a supranational economic body. There is no middle way and countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and France are deluding themselves if they think otherwise.
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António Correia Dec 28, 2012

Recently, Paul Krugman said that "The Euro is a shaky construction" – and no one can deny this statement. The Euro has been designed – by Delors et al – as a "single currency" instead of a (much more realistic) "common currency", and now it is very clear that this was a very bad choice. It is quite obvious that the “bad romance” between France and Germany must come to an end and be replaced by a solid, long lasting friendship:

http://www.marianne.net/Un-appel-franco-allemand-d-economistes-pour-une-sortie-paisible-de-l-euro_a217204.html

Twenty years after the Maastricht Treaty, a "Maastricht 2.0" Treaty is required, as soon as possible, so as to avoid a sad situation, in the near future, where the foreseen "European common home" becomes replaced by a true "European house of correction". We need to build a true European Union through a cooperative European disunion:

http://building-a-true-european-union.blogspot.com
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Cristina Martello Dec 28, 2012

I believe that domestic prices reduction is not the only way to gain competitiveness and it shoul not be the tool or at least the only tool European leader should use.
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serge d'agostino Dec 28, 2012

Very interesting from a liberal economist: the sources of our problems in Europe, namely the lack of real cooperation between States, austerity considered as a dogma and that those who sin must atone in pain.

Never he refers to non-cooperative game in which is engaged Germany since the late 90s (in contrast, the German example is touted without our author thinks a moment that if all countries do the same thing we will be in a scenario of race to the bottom as in the 30s. The main thing to do is to reduce wages and social contributions in countries already struggling and not a word about the revaluation salary or recovery activity that Germany should / could deliver.
Moreover our author considers that France adopted a stimulus policy: what a surpise! And read the end of the text: Greeks, Portuguese, Spaniards, Italians and ourselves, will appreciate). I think Sinn need a rest!
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Frank O'Callaghan Dec 28, 2012

How revealing!
"Gerhard Schröder’s Social Democratic government decided in 2003 to deprive millions of Germans of their second-tier unemployment insurance, thus paving the way for the creation of a low-wage sector, in turn reducing the rate of inflation."
The theory is that to be economically prosperous a country has to further impoverish and deprive those who work or have worked in order to enrich those who speculate.
Intellectually shameful and morally bankrupt!
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Lucas Klostermann Dec 27, 2012

Interesting analysis - inflation being an important part of competitiveness over time, in particular in absence of an exchange rate.
It strikes me that the competitive comparison is primarily towards other EU or neighboring countries. With most of the EU countries exporting primarily to other EU countries, this seems indeed a very important perspective.
However, in my perception an important argument used for the Euro and tighter collaboration within the EU is often the outside world; individual EU countries being feared to be irrelevant against the US, China or other large developing countries. What we have created with the Euro now is a currency union where a major instrument without the perils and strong social discomforts that Prof. Sinn refers to, has been taken away from national governments and/or financial markets; exchange rates and devaluation. Towards the main trading partners within the EU this instrument is dearly missed, towards the outside world having a Euro or not is maybe not that important.
I am curious how others view this, and hope for a positive twist.
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فرصة ثانية للإصلاح الأوروبي

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