Chris Van Es

Проблеск надежды в Иране

БЕРЛИН – Никто не мог предсказать победу Хасана Роухани на президентских выборах в Иране. Даже верховный лидер аятолла Али Хаменеи, вероятнее всего, был более чем слегка удивлен победой Роухани в первом туре, в избирательной кампании, которая начиналась с восьми кандидатами. В результате переговоры с Ираном по поводу его ядерной программы, а также гражданской войны в Сирии, могут сменить свою динамику. Но именно в этом и заключается Ближний Восток: вы никогда не можете знать, что ждет вас за углом.

В этом году исполняется десять лет со дня начала переговоров на уровне министров иностранных дел между Ираном и европейским триумвиратом в лице Германии, Франции и Великобритании в отношении ядерной программы Ирана. Я был там, представляя сторону Германии; там же был и Роухани, возглавлявший иранскую делегацию.

Переговоры продолжаются и по сей день – в расширенном формате, включающем Германию и пять постоянных членов Совета Безопасности Организации Объединенных Наций (5+1) – однако без каких-либо ощутимых результатов. Теперь Роухани возвращается к рискованному делу ядерной программы Ирана, однако в этот раз в качестве президента. Что можем мы – и он – ожидать?

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