Reducción de riesgo revisitada

NUEVA YORK – Hasta el reciente episodio de turbulencia del mercado financiero, una variedad de activos riesgosos (entre ellos acciones, bonos del gobierno y materias primas) habían estado en alza desde el verano pasado. Pero, si bien la aversión al riesgo y la volatilidad estaban en baja y los precios de los activos subían, el crecimiento económico siguió siendo lento en todo el mundo. Ahora los pollos de la economía global tal vez estén volviendo al gallinero.

Japón, que hace frente a dos décadas de estancamiento y deflación, tuvo que recurrir a “Abenomics” para evitar una recesión quíntuple. En el Reino Unido, el debate desde el verano pasado se concentró en la perspectiva de una recesión triple. Gran parte de la eurozona sigue sumergida en una recesión aguda -que ahora se está propagando desde la periferia a partes del núcleo central-. Hasta en Estados Unidos, el desempeño económico se mantuvo mediocre, con un crecimiento que rondó el 1,5% en los últimos trimestres.

Y ahora los favoritos de la economía mundial, los mercados emergentes, demostraron ser incapaces de revertir sus propias desaceleraciones. Según el FMI, el crecimiento anual del PBI de China se desaceleró a 8%, comparado con 10% en 2010; en el mismo período, la tasa de crecimiento de India pasó de 11,2% a 5,7%. Rusia, Brasil y Sudáfrica están creciendo a alrededor del 3%, y otros mercados emergentes también se desaceleran.

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