Les politiques de « de-risking » révisitées

NEW YORK – Jusqu’au récent épisode de troubles sur les marchés financiers, tout une variété d’actifs risqués ont connu une reprise (notamment les actions, les obligations étatiques et les matières premières), et cela depuis l’été dernier. Mais tandis que l’aversion au risque et la volatilité diminuaient, et que les prix des actifs augmentaient, la croissance économique est restée molle tout autour de la planète. Désormais, il se pourrait que l’économie mondiale en fasse les frais.

En proie à deux décennies de stagnation et de déflation, le Japon a été contraint de recourir à l’Abenomics afin d’éviter une récession à cinq creux. Au Royaume-Uni, le débat tourne depuis l’été dernier autour de la perspective d’une récession à trois creux. La majeure partie de la zone euro demeure enlisée dans une récession sévère – qui s’étend désormais de la périphérie vers certaines parties du centre. Même aux États-Unis, la performance économique demeure médiocre, la croissance ayant stagné autour d’1,5% au cours des derniers trimestres.

Et voici que les marchés émergents eux-mêmes, jusqu’à lors chouchous de l’économie mondiale, s’avèrent dans l’incapacité de palier à leur propre ralentissement. Selon le FMI, la croissance annuelle du PIB chinois a ralenti en passant de 10% en 2010 à 8% aujourd’hui ; sur la même période, le taux de croissance de l’Inde est passé de 11,2% à 5,7%. La Russie, le Brésil et l’Afrique du Sud présentent une croissance autour de 3%, d’autres marchés émergents connaissant également un ralentissement.

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