去风险再临

纽约—在金融市场最新一波动荡发生前,大量风险资产(包括股票、政府债券和商品)自去年夏天以来一直在反弹。但全世界的经济增长仍保持停滞状态,尽管风险厌恶程度和波动性在下降而资产价格在上升。如今,全球经济要消停了。

与停滞和斗争了二十年的日本不得不祭出安倍经济学来避免五重底衰退。在英国,自去年夏天开始的争论便集中于三重底衰退。大部分欧元区国家仍陷在严重的衰退中,如今已从外围蔓延至核心。即使在美国,经济表现也毫无亮点,过去几个季度的增长率一直徘徊在1.5%。

而如今,世界经济的宠儿新兴市场也无法扭转颓势了。据IMF的数据,中国年GDP增长已从2010年的10%放缓至8%;与此同时,印度增长率从11.2%降至5.7%。俄罗斯、巴西和南非以3%左右的速度增长,其他新兴市场也好不到哪里去。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/uvTb1Ok/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now