去风险再临

纽约—在金融市场最新一波动荡发生前,大量风险资产(包括股票、政府债券和商品)自去年夏天以来一直在反弹。但全世界的经济增长仍保持停滞状态,尽管风险厌恶程度和波动性在下降而资产价格在上升。如今,全球经济要消停了。

与停滞和斗争了二十年的日本不得不祭出安倍经济学来避免五重底衰退。在英国,自去年夏天开始的争论便集中于三重底衰退。大部分欧元区国家仍陷在严重的衰退中,如今已从外围蔓延至核心。即使在美国,经济表现也毫无亮点,过去几个季度的增长率一直徘徊在1.5%。

而如今,世界经济的宠儿新兴市场也无法扭转颓势了。据IMF的数据,中国年GDP增长已从2010年的10%放缓至8%;与此同时,印度增长率从11.2%降至5.7%。俄罗斯、巴西和南非以3%左右的速度增长,其他新兴市场也好不到哪里去。

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