Un nuevo enfoque para Corea del Norte

SEÚL – La reunión largamente postergada del Partido de los Trabajadores de Corea del Norte, actualmente en el poder, se está llevando a cabo ahora, en un momento en el que existen serias tensiones entre ese país y la comunidad internacional. Muchos creen que Kim Jong-eun, hijo tercero de Kim Jong-il, será nombrado en una posición clave y se anunciará públicamente que será el sucesor de su padre. También hay señales de que habrá un reacomodo de posiciones importantes en el partido, lo que permitirá al supuesto heredero formar una nueva base de poder.

Pase lo que pase y quienquiera que resulte ser el nuevo líder, lo más probable es que Corea del Norte se enfrente a un futuro inestable. El costo de mantener el orden interno seguirá aumentando a medida que las fallas fundamentales del sistema obliguen al nuevo líder a hacer frente a desafíos nuevos y difíciles. Además, la responsabilidad de manejar esa inestabilidad potencial va mucho más allá de los líderes en Pyongyang

La fragilidad de Corea del Norte se percibe por el hecho de que un evento político de tal importancia como lo es el congreso del Partido de los Trabajadores, que se realiza por primera vez en tres décadas, se pospuso repentinamente a principios de septiembre. Una causa del aplazamiento podría ser una división dentro de la élite dirigente, es un grupo que el propio “líder querido”, Kim Jong-il no puede controlar tan eficazmente como antes. Además, los problemas de salud de Kim podrían haberse agravado mucho más rápido de lo que los observadores piensan, lo que complica aún más las cosas.

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