Pour une nouvelle approche vis-à-vis de la Corée du Nord

SEOUL – La Conférence du Parti des Travailleurs de la Corée du Nord, reportée à plusieurs reprises, s’est enfin ouverte, mais à un moment d’extrêmes tensions entre la Corée du Nord et la communauté internationale. On s’attend largement à ce que le troisième fils de Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-eun, se voit octroyé un poste clé et qu’il soit officiellement désigné comme le successeur de son père. Il semble aussi qu’un certain nombre de postes importants à l’intérieur du Parti soient redistribués de manière à permettre au nouvel héritier de forger sa propre base de pouvoir.

Quoi qu’il arrive et quel que sera le nouveau dirigeant, la Corée du Nord se trouve devant un avenir incertain. Le coût du maintien de l’ordre intérieur sera en constante augmentation dans la mesure où les défauts fondamentaux du système obligent le nouveau dirigeant à faire face à d’énormes nouveaux défis. De plus, la portée des incidences de la gestion de cette potentielle instabilité dépasse largement Pyongyang.

Le report soudain d’un évènement exceptionnel tel que la conférence du Parti des Travailleurs, qui devait se tenir pour la première fois depuis trente ans début septembre, démontre la fragilité de la Corée du Nord. Une des raisons pour ce report pourrait être un schisme au sein même de l’élite dirigeante, que le Cher Dirigeant Kim Jong-il lui-même ne contrôle plus avec la même aisance qu’auparavant. De plus, les problèmes de santé de Kim ont peut-être été plus sérieux que ce que l’on a imaginé, ce qui compliquerait plus encore la situation.

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