Una opción vecinal para Irán

EREVAN – Una vez más, la cuestión de si bombardear o sancionar a Irán volvió a salir a la superficie. Durante años, el debate sobre Irán osciló entre dos malas alternativas. Algunos están convencidos de que un Irán nuclear es el peor de todos los escenarios posibles, peor aún que la lluvia radiactiva causada por un ataque preventivo. Pero ni un Irán con armas nucleares ni los ataques aéreos son opciones inteligentes, ciertamente no para esta región.

Las repercusiones de un bombardeo a Irán deberían ser claras: el cierre del Estrecho de Hormuz, los precios del petróleo por las nubes, una posible represalia contra Israel (más allá del origen del ataque) y hasta una mayor agitación en Irak y Afganistán. De hecho, la única certeza sobre un ataque preventivo es un daño irreparable y duradero para la seguridad regional y la estabilidad política y económica.

Por supuesto, la alternativa no es más segura. Un Irán munido de armas nucleares cambiaría el entorno de seguridad de toda la región y, dada la enemistad entre Israel e Irán, dos potencias nucleares de esas características enfrentadas entre sí plantearía una amenaza.

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