伊朗的睦邻选择

埃里温-轰炸还是制裁伊朗的问题再一次地摆在了人们面前。多年来,围绕着伊朗的争论在两个不好的选择之间徘徊。有些人深信不疑地认为拥有核武器的伊朗是所有可能的情形中最糟糕的情形,甚至比先发制人的攻击的结果还要糟。但是,对伊朗所在地区来说,让伊朗拥有核武器和空袭伊朗肯定都不是明智的选择。

轰炸伊朗的后果应该是很清楚的:霍尔木兹海峡的关闭,石油价格的飙升,对以色列可能的报复(不管袭击伊朗的起因是什么),以及在伊拉克和阿富汗国内更严重的混乱状况。事实上,任何先发制人的攻击唯一确定的后果是,对区域安全以及区域政治和经济稳定不可挽回和长期的损害。

当然,让伊朗拥有核武器的选择和空袭伊朗的选择一样,都不安全。拥有核武器的伊朗会改变整个地区的安全环境,并且,鉴于存在在以色列和伊朗之间的敌意,这样两个拥有核武器的国家相互敌对也构成了一个威胁。

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