El enraizamiento económico de China

HONG KONG – Por más de tres décadas, el PIB de China creció en un promedio de más del 10% anual. Sin embargo, el exprimer ministro Wen Jiabao describe acertadamente este impresionante desempeño del crecimiento como “inestable, desequilibrado, descoordinado e insostenible”, destacando los muchos costos y desafíos que lo han acompañado en lo económico, social y ambiental. Ahora China tiene que elegir entre el antiguo modelo basado en las exportaciones e impulsado por la inversión y un nuevo orden económico más viable.

Los créditos baratos y los incentivos perversos – tales como otorgar ascensos a los funcionarios que contribuyen más al crecimiento del PIB – han dado lugar a inversiones de gran magnitud, pero que al mismo tiempo son redundantes. Dichas inversiones, a su vez, han contribuido a un exceso de infraestructura y de capacidad en la industria. Este modelo no sólo es ineficiente, sino que al canalizar los recursos gubernamentales hacia la inversión también socava el desarrollo social de China.

Teniendo en cuenta esto, los líderes de China han decidido dejar de utilizar el crecimiento del PIB como criterio principal para evaluar el desempeño de los funcionarios. De hecho, el Doceavo Plan Quinquenal, que se extiende hasta el año 2015, tiene como objetivo cambiar la economía de China a un nuevo modelo de crecimiento más sostenible basado en la calidad y la innovación, y acepta que el crecimiento anual del PIB posiblemente caiga a un 7% durante la transición.

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