Китай растет вниз

ГОНКОНГ – На протяжении более чем трех десятилетий рост ВВП Китая составлял в среднем более 10% в год. Но бывший премьер-министр Вэнь Цзябао по праву назвал этот впечатляющий рост «нестабильным, несбалансированным, нескоординированным и неустойчивым», подчеркивая многочисленные экономические, социальные и экологические издержки и проблемы, сопровождающие этот процесс. Теперь Китай должен сделать выбор между экспорто-ориентированной, основанной на инвестициях моделью роста прошлого и новым, более жизнеспособным экономическим порядком.

Дешевое кредитование и неправильные стимулы – такие как поощрение должностных лиц, которые делают наибольший вклад в рост ВВП – привели к массовому, но избыточному инвестированию, что, в свою очередь, способствовало наращиванию избыточных мощностей в обрабатывающей промышленности и инфраструктуре. Эта модель не просто неэффективна; направление ресурсов правительства на поддержку инвестиций также подрывает социальное развитие Китая.

В связи с этим китайские лидеры решили прекратить использовать рост ВВП в качестве основного критерия оценки работы чиновников. Действительно, 12-й пятилетний план, который завершается в 2015 году, направлен на переход экономики Китая к новой, более устойчивой модели роста, основанной на качестве и инновациях, и подразумевает, что ежегодный рост ВВП, вероятно, снизится до 7% в переходный период.

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