Declina la Crescita in Cina

HONG KONG – Per più di tre decenni, il PIL della Cina è cresciuto mediamente di oltre il 10% annuo. Ma l’ex premier Wen Jiabao ha giustamente descritto questa impressionante performance di crescita come “instabile, sbilanciata, scoordinata e insostenibile”, mettendo in evidenza i molti costi e le molte sfide che l’hanno accompagnata sul piano economico, sociale e ambientale. Ora la Cina deve scegliere tra un modello di crescita del passato orientato dagli investimenti e basato sulle esportazioni, ed un nuovo ordine economico più praticabile.

Condizioni di credito a buon mercato ed incentivi perversi - come le promozioni per i funzionari che contribuiscono maggiormente alla crescita del PIL - hanno portato ad avere una mole di investimenti massiccia ma ridondante, che, a sua volta, ha contribuito ad un eccesso di capacità nel settore manifatturiero e delle infrastrutture. Questo modello non è solo inefficiente; la canalizzazione delle risorse del governo verso il sostegno degli investimenti indebolisce anche lo sviluppo sociale della Cina.

Dato questo, i leader cinesi hanno deciso di smettere di usare la crescita del PIL come criterio primario per la valutazione delle prestazioni dei funzionari. Infatti, la dodicesima edizione del piano quinquennale, che si estende fino al 2015, si propone di spostare l’economia cinese verso un nuovo modello di crescita più sostenibile, basato sulla qualità e l’innovazione, ed accetta che la crescita annua del PIL, nel corso della transizione, possa probabilmente scendere del 7%.

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