减速增长再创改革红利

香港——三十多年来,中国以超过10%的GDP增长率快速发展。然而,在这令人赞叹的经济增长成绩背后,随之而来的是诸多经济、社会、环境成本和挑战,正如前总理温家宝准确的描述——“不稳定、不平衡、不协调、不可持续”。现在,中国必须做出选择:以出口投资为驱动的旧的经济增长模式,还是可持续的经济增长新秩序。

廉价信贷和错误的激励机制(例如提拔对GDP增长贡献最大的官员等)引发大规模的重复投资,进而导致制造业和基础设施行业的产能过剩。这种模式不仅效率低下,还引导政府资源流向阻碍中国社会发展的无效投资。

有鉴于此,中国领导人已决定停止将GDP增长作为评价官员政绩的主要标准。实际上,将于2015年结束的“十二五”规划旨在实现中国经济向以质量和创新为基础的可持续的新增长模式转型,并接受在转型期间GDP增长率降至7%的可能性。

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