Paul Lachine

Un préstamo y una plegaria

NUEVA YORK – Los países conocidos colectivamente como PIIGS –Portugal, Irlanda, Italia, Grecia y España– cargan con unos niveles cada vez más insostenibles de deuda pública y privada. Varios de los más afectados –Portugal, Irlanda y Grecia– han visto que los costos de su endeudamiento alcanzaban cifras sin precedentes en las últimas semanas, aun después de que su pérdida de acceso a los mercados propiciara rescates financiados por la Unión Europea y el Fondo Monetario Internacional. También están aumentando los costos del endeudamiento de España.

Grecia es claramente insolvente. Aun con un plan de austeridad draconiano, que asciende al 10 por ciento de su PIB, su deuda pública ascendería al 160 por ciento del PIB. Portugal, donde el crecimiento lleva un decenio estancado, está experimentando un desastre en cámara lenta que provocará la insolvencia del sector público. En Irlanda y en España, la transferencia de enormes pérdidas del sistema bancario al balance general del Estado, que se suma a una deuda pública en aumento, provocará con el tiempo la insolvencia de su deuda soberana.

El planteamiento oficial, el plan A, ha sido el de fingir que esas economías padecen una crisis de liquidez, no un problema de solvencia, y que la facilitación de préstamos de rescate, junto con austeridad fiscal y reformas estructurales, puede restablecer la sostenibilidad de la deuda y el acceso a los mercados. Esa actitud de “prolongar y fingir” o de “prestar y rezar” está condenada al fracaso, porque, lamentablemente, la mayoría de las opciones a las que han recurrido en el pasado los países endeudados para librarse de su excesiva deuda no son viables.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/73kNlC1/es;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.