Un’ Europa Liquida

BRUSSELS – L’Eurozona si sta allontanando dall’orlo del baratro? Potrebbe anche darsi, perché i tratti emergenti di un nuovo quadro strutturale per la risoluzione della crisi del debito sovrano in atto contengono un aspetto chiave tralasciato sin ora. Certamente, l’assenza di questo elemento è stata alla base della crisi dello spread finanziario di questa estate, che è andata oltre i piccoli paesi periferici come Grecia, Irlanda e Portogallo per andare a colpire in modo sistematico paesi importanti come Italia e Spagna.

Il punto di partenza del contagio è stata la presa d’atto da parte degli investitori che il fondo salva Stati, l’Istituto Europeo per la Stabilità Finanziaria (EFSF), era designato a dare un supporto finanziario d’emergenza soltanto ai paesi periferici. Il programma semplicemente non ha e non avrà mai abbastanza fondi per far fronte all’acquisto massiccio di titoli, necessario per stabilizzare il debito di mercato di grandi economie quali quelle di Spagna ed Italia. L’EFSF avrà al più 440 miliardi di dollari a sua disposizione (qualsiasi incremento comprometterebbe la permanenza della Francia in classe tripla A), mentre il debito pubblico combinato di Italia e Spagna è più di 2 mila miliardi di dollari.

All’inizio di agosto, l’effetto domino della crisi del debito sovrano dei paesi periferici della zona euro ha cominciato a sfondare, poiché i mercati finanziari non aspettano il declassamento di un paese dopo l’altro. Al contrario, i mercati tendono ad anticipare le mosse finali del gioco, o almeno uno scenario potenziale, in questo caso la struttura implicita del complessivo programma di contenimento della crisi.

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