Una prueba de gravedad para el euro

CAMBRIDGE.– Si bien entiendo que las tasas de cambio nunca son fáciles de explicar ni comprender, el relativamente robusto valor actual del euro me resulta ligeramente misterioso. ¿Creen seriamente los gnomos de los mercados de divisas que el último «paquete exhaustivo» de los gobiernos de la zona del euro para salvar su moneda resistirá más de unos pocos meses?

El nuevo plan depende de una cuestionable combinación de dudosos artilugios de ingeniería financiera y vagas promesas de modesto financiamiento asiático. Incluso la mejor parte del plan, el recorte propuesto (pero no verdaderamente aceptado) del 50% para los tenedores privados de deuda soberana griega, no es suficiente para estabilizar la profunda deuda y los problemas de crecimiento de ese país.

¿Cómo puede entonces negociarse el euro con una prima el 40% respecto del dólar, incluso cuando los inversores continúan considerando la deuda de los gobiernos del sur de Europa con gran escepticismo? Puedo pensar en una muy buena razón por la cual el euro debe caer y seis razones no tan convincentes por las cuales debe mantenerse estable o apreciarse. Comencemos con el porqué de la necesaria depreciación del euro.

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