Ein Schwerkrafttest für den Euro

CAMBRIDGE, MASS.: Mir ist bewusst, dass Wechselkurse nie leicht erklärbar oder verständlich sind. Trotzdem empfinde ich den heutigen relativ robusten Kurs des Euro als etwas mysteriös. Glauben die Gnomen an den Devisenmärkten ernsthaft, dass das letzte „umfassende Rettungspaket“ für den Euro mehr als ein paar Monate Bestand haben wird?

Der neue Plan beruht auf einer fragwürdigen Mischung zweifelhafter finanztechnischer Gimmicks und vager Versprechen eines bescheidenen asiatischen Engagements. Selbst der beste Teil des Plans – der vorgeschlagene (aber nicht wirklich vereinbarte) Haircut für Inhaber griechischer Schuldverschreibungen aus dem Privatsektor von 50% – reicht zur Stabilisierung der profunden Schulden- und Wachstumsprobleme des Landes nicht aus.

Wie also kommt es, dass der Euro mit einem Aufschlag von 40% auf den US-Dollar gehandelt wird, obwohl die Anleger südeuropäische Staatsanleihen weiter mit großer Skepsis betrachten? Mir fällt ein sehr guter Grund ein, warum der Euro fallen muss, und sechs weniger überzeugende Gründe, warum er stabil bleiben oder aufwerten sollte. Beginnen wir damit, warum der Euro fallen muss.

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