Un test de gravité pour l'euro

CAMBRIDGE – Même si je me rends bien compte que les taux de change ne sont jamais faciles à expliquer ni à comprendre, je trouve quelque peu mystérieuse la valeur actuelle relativement robuste de l'euro. Les banquiers internationaux des marchés des changes pensent-ils sérieusement que le dernier « train de mesures » des gouvernements de la zone euro pour sauver l'euro, sera maintenu pendant plus de quelques mois ?

Le nouveau plan s'appuie sur un mélange discutable de douteux gadgets d'ingénierie financière et de vagues promesses de modeste financement asiatique. Même la meilleure partie du plan, la décote de 50% proposée (mais pas vraiment acceptée) pour les détenteurs de la dette souveraine grecque du secteur privé, ne suffit pas à stabiliser les profonds problèmes de dette et de croissance de ce pays.

Comment se fait-il alors que l'euro s’échange 40% plus cher que le dollar américain, alors même que les investisseurs continuent d'afficher la dette gouvernementale de l’Europe du sud avec grand scepticisme ? Je vois une très bonne raison pour laquelle l'euro doit chuter et six raisons pas si convaincantes que cela, selon lesquelles il devrait demeurer stable ou monter. Commençons par les raisons pour lesquelles l'euro doit chuter.

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