欧元重力测试

坎布里奇——尽管我赞同汇率问题很难解释或理解清楚,但仍然对眼下欧元相对稳健的价值感到有些不解。难道货币市场真的相信,欧元区各国政府最新的欧元拯救“完整方案”能维持几个月?

新计划颇不靠谱,它依赖于可疑金融工程伎俩和从亚洲适量融资的含糊承诺。即便是该计划的最佳部分——即准备(但并未实际通过)让希腊主权债务的私人投资者损失50%——也不足以稳定希腊沉重的债务和增长问题。

那么,既然投资者仍对南欧政府债务充满疑虑,为何欧元对美元仍有40%的溢价?在我看来,欧元必须下跌这一观点有一个非常充分的理由,而欧元应该维持稳定甚至升值有六个不那么令人信服的理由。让我们从欧元为何必须下跌开始。

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