与伊朗的讨价还价

伊朗的核阴云笼罩在阿拉伯人和以色列人心头挥之不去,但只有美国和以色列才是限制伊朗核野心的主要推动国。有关这一问题的线索和其可能的解决方案只有在美国—伊朗—以色列的三角中去寻求。

虽然霍梅尼1979年的伊斯兰革命中断了以色列与伊朗之间悠久的盟友关系,但两国仍在美国的庇护下继续往来。1980年代以色列向伊朗提供武器对抗伊拉克的“伊朗门事件”就证明了这一点。以色列和伊朗这两个非阿拉伯的大国在充满敌意的阿拉伯环境中拥有共同的根本利益。这一点连伊斯兰革命也改变不了。

由于美国赢得第一次海湾战争和苏联解体之后变化的战略环境,以色列和伊朗在拉宾政府执政的1990年代早期进入了公开对抗的局面。美国主导的阿拉伯—以色列和平进程是日益被孤立的伊朗最可怕的梦魇。该进程取得了一系列举世瞩目的成就:“马德里和平会议”、《奥斯陆协议》、以色列与约旦的和平协议、与叙利亚近乎和睦的关系以及以色列对从摩洛哥到卡塔尔的阿拉伯国家的渗透。

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