Una tormenta global perfecta

NUEVA YORK - Parece ser que oscuras y amenazantes nubes financieras y económicas avanzan desde todas direcciones: la eurozona, Estados Unidos, China y otras áreas. De hecho, es posible que la economía mundial en 2013 resulte ser un ambiente donde resulte muy difícil encontrar abrigo.

Para empezar, la crisis de la eurozona se está agravando: al tiempo que el euro sigue siendo muy fuerte, una carga frontal de austeridad fiscal profundiza la recesión en muchos países miembros, y la contracción del crédito en la periferia y los altos precios del petróleo socavan las perspectivas de recuperación. El sistema bancario de la eurozona se está balcanizando, a medida que se cortan las líneas de crédito transfronterizas e interbancarias. La fuga de capitales podría convertirse en una corrida bancaria total en la periferia si, como es probable, Grecia acaba por salir desordenadamente del euro en los próximos meses.

Más aún, las tensiones fiscales y de la deuda soberana están empeorando a medida que los diferenciales de las tasas de interés para España e Italia regresan a sus insostenibles niveles máximos. De hecho, puede que la eurozona precise no solo de un rescate bancario internacional (como ocurrió hace poco en España), sino también de un plan de rescate soberano pleno en un momento en que los "muros de protección" internacionales y de la eurozona son insuficientes para la tarea de respaldar a España e Italia. Por ello, sigue siendo posible la ruptura desordenada de la eurozona.

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