Идеальный глобальный шторм

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Кажется, что свинцовые финансовые и экономические грозовые облака надвигаются со всех сторон: еврозоны, США, Китая и других стран. Действительно, в 2013 году экономика может оказаться в очень сложной обстановке и негде будет укрыться.

Во-первых, кризис еврозоны усугубляется из-за того, что евро остается слишком сильным, жесткие уже на начальном этапе меры экономии бюджетных средств усугубляют спад во многих странах-членах, а кредитный кризис на периферии и высокие цены на нефть подрывают перспективы восстановления. В банковской системе еврозоны идет процесс балканизации по мере того, как обрезаются межграничные и межбанковские кредитные линии, и бегство капитала из периферийных банков может превратиться в полномасштабный набег на банки в случае весьма вероятного отказа Греции от евро в ближайшие несколько месяцев.

Кроме того, налогово-бюджетный кризис и кризис суверенных долгов ухудшается за счет возвращения спредов процентных ставок для Испании и Италии к своим неустойчивым пиковым уровням. Действительно, еврозоне международная помощь может потребоваться не только для спасения банков (как недавно в Испании), но и для введения в действие полномасштабных мер по спасению суверенных стран в тот момент, когда сил еврозоны и международных брандмауэров станет недостаточно для выполнения задачи по поддержке Испании и Италии. Из этого можно сделать вывод, что беспорядочный развал еврозоны остается возможным.

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