全球完美风暴

纽约—不管往哪个方向看,金融和经济都是阴云密布:欧元区、美国、中国概莫能外。事实上,到2013年,全球经济可能出现极其困难的情况,没人能独善其身。

首先,欧元区危机正在恶化,由于欧元维持强势,前瞻性财政紧缩将会深化多个成员国的衰退,而外围国信贷动荡和高油价又阻挠了复苏前景。随着跨国及银行间信用的收缩以及希腊可能在未来几个月无序退出欧元区将导致资本外逃演变为外围国银行的完全挤兑,欧元区银行系统正在分崩离析。

此外,随着西班牙和意大利利差回到再次达到不可持续的峰值水平,财政和主权债务紧张正在恶化。事实上,欧元区所需要的可能不仅仅是针对银行(目前是西班牙银行)的国际援助,而是在欧元区和国际防火墙不足以抵御西班牙和意大利事件的情况下进行完全的主权援助。

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