Ein deutsches Aufschimmern im globalen Aufschwung

Im Jahr 2004 erreichte das Weltwirtschaftswachstum 5,1%, der schnellste Anstieg der vergangenen 28 Jahre. Während sich der Ifo-Indikator für das Weltwirtschaftsklima, der durch vierteljährliche Befragungen von 1.200 Experten in 90 Ländern ermittelt wird, im Verlauf der drei ersten Quartale des Jahres 2005 leicht verschlechterte, stieg er im letzten Quartal erneut an, und deutete so auf ein Andauern des Aufschwungs hin. Für das Jahr 2005 wird das Wachstum auf etwa 4,3% geschätzt und für 2006 kann mit einer ähnlichen Rate gerechnet werden, was eine seit den Siebzigerjahren nicht da gewesene Phase nachhaltigen globalen Wachstums darstellt.

Es handelt sich jedoch nicht um einen einheitlichen Aufschwung. In den Vereinigten Staaten hat die Zahl der Experten abgenommen, die die gegenwärtige Situation als günstig einstufen; eine Mehrheit glaubt sogar, dass sich die wirtschaftliche Situation im Lauf der kommenden sechs Monate verschlechtern wird. In den asiatischen Ländern hingegen, einschließlich China, bleibt der Optimismus ungebrochen. Das gleiche gilt für Osteuropa, die ehemals sowjetischen Staaten und Lateinamerika.

Die große Überraschung ist Europa, das, anders als 2004 und in der ersten Hälfte 2005, nunmehr den Rest der Welt einzuholen scheint. Während das Wachstum in den “alten” Mitgliedern der Europäischen Union im Jahr 2005 dürftige 1,5% betrug, rechnet das Ifo-Institut für 2006 mit einem Anstieg des EU-15 Wachstums auf 2,1%.

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