Německé blýskání v celosvětovém boomu

V roce 2004 rostla světová ekonomika tempem 5,1%, což bylo nejvyšší tempo růstu za posledních 28 let. Indikátor světového ekonomického klimatu, který institut Ifo stanovuje ze čtvrtletních průzkumů 1 200 expertů v 90 zemích, se sice během prvních tří čtvrtletí roku 2005 mírně zhoršil, ale v posledním čtvrtletí opět vzrostl, což naznačuje pokračování boomu. Růst v roce 2005 se odhaduje přibližně na 4,3% a podobné tempo lze očekávat i v roce 2006; nastává tedy období trvalého rychlého celosvětového růstu, nevídaného od sedmdesátých let minulého století.

Růst však není rovnoměrný. Ve Spojených státech klesl počet expertů hodnotících současnou situaci příznivě; většina se jich domnívá, že se ekonomická situace v průběhu následujících šesti měsíců zhorší. V asijských zemích včetně Číny je však optimismus nezlomný. Totéž platí o východní Evropě, bývalých sovětských republikách a Latinské Americe.

Velkým překvapením je Evropa, u níž se na rozdíl od roku 2004 a první poloviny roku 2005 zdá, že dohání zbytek světa. Zatímco v roce 2005 činil růst patnácti „starých“ členských zemí Evropské unie bídných 1,5%, Ifo očekává, že v roce 2006 se tempo růstu evropské patnáctky zrychlí na 2,1%.

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