前所未有的未来

耶路撒冷—以我将近90岁的年纪,想不起有哪个时候的决策与过去如此毫无关联。今天的一切重大发展都是所有人前所未见的。专家们研究过去,但他们被旧范式限制住了头脑,无法清醒地看到未来。

今天,世界充满了动态的复杂性,基于科学、快速变迁的全球经济使得如此之多的现象互相交错,以至于我们无法通过根据过去的线性外推来预测未来。唯一确定的是,未来将由科学进步和创新决定,但科学进步和创新是无法预知的。

因此,传统的国家和领袖权力在削弱;在当今全球经济中,创新者,而不是政客,才拥有最大的影响力。全球化经济影响着所有国家,但没有哪个国家能够单枪匹马决定结果,因为科学技术是无国界的。全球公司希望在全世界范围开展业务,这不但削弱了主权,也削弱了种族主义和偏见,并极大地抑制了民族主义。

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