Adiós a la (gloriosa) guerra

En días recientes, el gobierno italiano cayó después de perder un voto parlamentario sobre el despliegue de tropas del país en Afganistán, al tiempo que Inglaterra y Dinamarca anunciaron que empezarán a retirar sus tropas de Iraq. Mientras que la administración Bush está desplegando 21,000 soldados estadounidenses adicionales en Iraq y presionando para que sus aliados envíen más tropas aliadas a Afganistán, éstos están rechazando su política en Medio Oriente. Cada vez están más convencidos de que la “victoria” será difícil en cualquier conflicto asimétrico entre Estados, por más poderosos que sean, e insurgentes armados motivados por la religión.

El dogma de Donald Rumsfeld de la “transformación” militar –la modernización tecnológica de la capacidad de un ejército para permitir una victoria decisiva con menos tropas- fracasó rotundamente en Iraq. Tampoco Israel, con su abrumadora ventaja tecnológica, pudo derrotar a Jezbolá en Líbano. En el norte de Israel cayeron más cohetes y misiles en 33 días de los que recibió Inglaterra durante toda la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Por lo tanto, los israelíes ahora deben considerar un fenómeno totalmente nuevo: una entidad asimétrica, Jezbolá, con la capacidad de fuego de un Estado nación.

Entonces, el intenso debate sobre si debe aumentar el número de efectivos terrestres estadounidenses en Iraq es irrelevante. Ni las experiencias soviéticas en Afganistán en los años 1980 ni las actuales de la OTAN justifican el argumento de que el número de tropas es lo que más importa en un campo de batalla moderno. Cuando no existen frentes militares geoestratégicos, como en Kosovo, Afganistán e Iraq, la masa ya no significa la victoria. La noción de “batallas decisivas” del gran pensador militar Carl von Clausewitz como el “centro de gravedad” de la guerra es simplemente irrelevante en los conflictos que no tienen un “centro de gravedad” visible.

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