Dean Rohrer

Unas vacaciones del euro

MÚNICH – Bajo considerable presión externa, los países de la eurozona alcanzados por la crisis se han decidido, por fin, a hacer dolorosos recortes en sus presupuestos fiscales, mediante reducciones de salarios y despidos de empleados públicos, que buscan llevar a niveles tolerables las necesidades de financiación futuras.

Sin embargo, la competitividad, particularmente en Grecia y Portugal, no mejora. Las últimas cifras del Eurostat sobre la evolución del índice de precios de los bienes de producción local (deflactor del PIB) no muestran ninguna tendencia hacia la devaluación real en los países en crisis. Pero solo la devaluación real, obtenida mediante un abaratamiento en relación con los competidores de la eurozona, puede restablecer la competitividad de los países afectados. La reducción del costo laboral unitario también podría ayudar, pero solo en la medida en que se traduzca realmente en una reducción de precios.

Después de todo, lo que llevó a estos países a perder competitividad, sumar un déficit de cuenta corriente cada vez mayor y acumular una voluminosa deuda externa fue la inflación, alimentada por la enorme entrada de crédito barato que siguió a la introducción del euro. Ahora que los mercados de capitales ya no están dispuestos a financiar el déficit, los precios deberían bajar, pero es obvio que no lo están haciendo.

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