Dean Rohrer

Bisogna prendersi un anno sabbatico dall’euro

MONACO – Sotto le pesanti pressioni esterne, i Paesi dell’Eurozona colpiti dalla crisi si sono prodigati alla fine per attuare dolorosi tagli ai bilanci pubblici. I salari sono stati drasticamente ridotti e i dipendenti pubblici licenziati per riportare i nuovi debiti a un livello tollerabile.

Eppure, la competitività, in particolare di Grecia e Portogallo, non mostra segni di miglioramento. Gli ultimi dati Eurostat sull’evoluzione dell’indice dei prezzi per i beni autoprodotti (deflatore del Pil) non evidenziano alcuna tendenza verso una reale deflazione nei Paesi in crisi. Ma una deflazione reale, raggiunta abbassando i prezzi rispetto ai competitor dell’Eurozona, è l’unica strada possibile per ristabilire la competitività di questi Paesi. Una riduzione dei costi unitari del lavoro potrebbe incrementare la competitività solo nella misura in cui si traduca davvero in una riduzione dei prezzi.

Dopo tutto, è stata l’inflazione dei prezzi nei Paesi in crisi, alimentata dai massici afflussi di credito a basso costo seguiti all’introduzione dell’euro, a comportare una perdita di competitività – con graduale aumento dei deficit delle partite correnti – e l’accumulo di un enorme debito estero. Ora che i mercati di capitale non intendono più finanziare questi deficit, i prezzi dovrebbero arretrare, ma questo ovviamente non sta avvenendo.

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