Dean Rohrer

Tvůrčí pauza od eura

MNICHOV – V důsledku značného tlaku zvenčí se krizí stižené státy eurozóny konečně rozhoupávají k bolestným škrtům ve svých státních rozpočtech. Mzdy se snižují a státní zaměstnanci propouštějí, aby se nové půjčky srazily na snesitelnou úroveň.

Přesto se konkurenceschopnost zejména v Řecku a Portugalsku nezlepšuje. Nejnovější čísla Eurostatu o vývoji cenového indexu u vlastního vyrobeného zboží (deflátor HDP) nevykazují v krizových zemích vůbec žádnou tendenci k reálné devalvaci. Reálná devalvace dosažená snížením cen oproti konkurentům v eurozóně je však jediným způsobem, jak obnovit konkurenceschopnost těchto zemí. Rovněž snížení jednotkových nákladů práce může zvýšit konkurenceschopnost pouze do té míry, do jaké bude jeho výsledkem snížení cen.

Koneckonců to byla cenová inflace v krizových zemích živená mohutnými přílivy levných úvěrů po zavedení eura, co mělo za následek jejich ztrátu konkurenceschopnosti, nafouknutí deficitů běžného účtu a nahromadění enormního zahraničního dluhu. A když teď kapitálové trhy nejsou nadále ochotné tyto deficity financovat, měly by ceny zařadit zpátečku, což se však očividně neděje.

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