Dean Rohrer

休病假的欧元区受灾国

发自慕尼黑——在持续的外部压力之下,那些遭到危机侵袭的欧元区国家终于放弃了长期以来的抵抗,开始忍痛削减财政预算。一方面大幅下调工资水平,另一方面削减公务员职位,希望能令新增债务的规模维持在一个可忍受的水平上。

但这些国家的竞争力——尤其是希腊和葡萄牙——却并未得到改善。最新的欧盟统计局数字显示:无论哪个受灾国家的自产商品价格指数(扣除GDP中的通货膨胀因素后)都没有出现向实质性贬值靠拢的趋势,而如果要重新树立竞争力优势的话就只能通过压低与其他欧元区国家竞争时的我方报价,也就是实质性贬值。也只有在真正实现价格下降的情况下,单位劳动力成本的降低才能转化为竞争力的提升。

毕竟,正是在引入欧元后廉价信贷大量涌入,随后引发价格通货膨胀才最终导致了这些国家的竞争力下降,经常账户赤字膨胀和大量外债的积累。如今资本市场已不愿再去填补这些赤字缺口,因此价格应该逆向走低,但很显然,预料中的这一切都没有发生。

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