Chris Van Es

解决南欧问题的方案——货币贬值

剑桥 ——对于欧洲而言,今年很可能是欧元生死存亡的考验。欧元区若要继续存在,则需要提出一项可靠的方案,解决其长期存在的主权债务危机问题,而这反过来又需要解决外部失衡和财政失衡两大问题,这两种宏观经济失衡问题正是这一危机的核心。

此次危机暴露出欧元区内部成员国在经济竞争力方面存在很大的差距。从1996年到2010年,德国单位劳动力成本仅上升8%,法国上升13%,而葡萄牙上升24%,西班牙上升35%,意大利上升37%,希腊上升则高达59%。这一问题导致欧元区内部国家贸易极度不平衡,而南欧和法国庞大财政赤字和公共债务庞大,使这一问题更为复杂,原因很大部分要归咎于外国债权人。

难道必须要欧元区解体才能解决这些贸易不平衡问题吗?假如葡萄牙退出欧元区,重新引入埃斯库多(葡萄牙货币单位),那么随后而来的汇率贬值会使葡萄牙出口产品价格下跌,进口产品价格上涨,刺激葡萄牙经济发展,带来其急需的经济增长。但是,脱离欧元将是一件很棘手的事,因为它所带来的金融风暴将胜过任何通过货币贬值来增强竞争力中获得的短期收益。

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