民主缅甸?

东京——历史转型的发生总是出人意料的。在冷战正酣的时候,戈尔巴乔夫在苏联推出了改革与新思维的自由化政策,而美国总统里根推出了战略导弹防御系统,并在阿富汗和其他地区的实施双边战争代理人战争。邓小平的经济开放政策是在1978年中国对越南的血腥入侵(以失败告终)之后推行的。而南非的末代种族隔离领导人德克拉克一开始被普遍认为只是旧体制的又一个捍卫者,几乎无人想到他会释放曼德拉并结束少数白人的统治。

现在,世界突然对缅甸产生了疑问,在60年的军事独裁之后,缅甸真的将开始走向终结该国贱民地位的实质性政治转型了吗?缅甸会像德克拉克的南非一样,真正从半个世纪的自我封闭中走出来吗?反对派的英雄领导人昂山素季和新任缅甸总统登盛能像20世纪90年代初曼德拉和德克拉克在南非那样推行巧妙而和平的政治转型吗?

尽管昂山素季经历了20年的软禁和隔离,但仍具有让曼德拉完成伟大成就的两大素质:心止如水和悲天悯人。随着缅甸当局开始改革检验,这些素质和她的谈判技能——以及最重要的,她在道德上的居高临下——一起,将受到前所未有的考验。

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