¿Un mundo desglobalizado?

Cambridge – Tal vez lleve unos meses o un par de años, pero de una manera u otra Estados Unidos y otras economías avanzadas finalmente se recuperarán de la crisis actual. Sin embargo, es improbable que la economía mundial siga siendo igual.

Incluso cuando termine la peor de las crisis, es probable que nos encontremos en un mundo en cierto modo desglobalizado, en el que el comercio internacional crezca a un ritmo más lento, en el que haya menos financiamiento externo y en el que el apetito de los países ricos por experimentar grandes déficits de cuenta corriente disminuya significativamente. ¿Esto desencadenará la tragedia para los países en desarrollo?

No necesariamente. El crecimiento en el mundo en desarrollo tiende a producirse en tres variantes diferentes. Primero viene el crecimiento generado por el préstamo externo. Segundo, el crecimiento como subproducto del alza rápida de las materias primas. Tercero, el crecimiento generado por una reestructuración económica y una diversificación en nuevos productos.

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